Unpacking the UNDP Climate Promise 2025

The Climate Promise – What is It?

For the Global South, climate change is not an abstract concept on a classroom wall. Here it is felt every day. Heatwaves and extreme weather batter the coasts of Africa and Asia, where people are disproportionately affected by the changing climate. This affects food security and public health –the Center for Global Development reports that by 2050, climate change could devalue farmland in Africa by up to 61%.

The Climate Promise is a UNDP initiative designed to prevent that. So far, it has helped 80% of developing countries create stronger climate pledges. Through climate pledges, developing countries can fight environmental injustice and contribute towards the Paris Agreement targets.

Some Background: Climate Pledges are a Paris Agreement Prerequisite

Climate pledges are officially known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Every country in the Paris Agreement has one. NDCs are essentially national action plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming. The goal is to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

NDCs, also called climate pledges, are the Paris Agreement’s way of ensuring everyone stays on track to meeting this collective goal. Nearly 200 countries, including South Africa, have submitted NDCs, all of which are available to the public through the official NDC Registry. Climate pledges must be updated every five years. The third round is due in 2025.

UNEP is urging countries to take a more aggressive approach with this new wave of NDCs. “This is our last chance to avoid overshooting 1.5°C,” says executive director Inger Anderson. “To keep 1.5°C possible, and avoid an increasingly unliveable future, the new NDCs must promise to cut 42% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035.”

South Africa’s Climate Pledge

South Africa is one of 140 developing countries that receive support from the UNDP’s Climate Promise initiative. This year, the Climate Promise will once again review our pledge and assist with mobilisation. In our last climate pledge (submitted in 2021) we vowed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 31% between 2021 and 2025.

The target for 2025 was to keep GHG emissions between 398 and 510 MtCO2e. We also committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Such ambitious targets will require a concerted effort across all levels of government. The Climate Change Act of July 2024 may be a step in the right direction. The newly gazetted bill mandates municipal and provincial climate risk assessments and mandatory carbon budgets for selected private companies. This bill, among other climate response strategies, is designed to advance the goals of our NDC under the Paris Agreement.

Climate Finance a Key Concern for 2025

The UNDP has identified financing as a major blocker for green transformation in developing countries. This will be a key area of focus for Climate Promise 2025. During the review of the third round of climate pledges, the UNDP plans to address investability. The goal this year is to tweak the NDCs of developing nations to help them attract more foreign investment.

Financing was also the focus of COP29 – a UN climate change conference held in November 2024. During the conference, developed countries committed to tripling climate financing for developing countries. The new goal is to mobilise at least US $300 billion per year. This financial aid could save lives in places most vulnerable to climate change. However, it cannot be the only source of funds if we hope to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

The CPI estimates that it will cost US $2.8 trillion for African countries alone to implement their NDCs by 2030. Climate funding, even with the increase, makes up a mere 10% of this need. Ramping up local and foreign investment on the continent is the only true way to realise our goals. This is where Climate Promise 2025 can make the most impact.

The Climate Promise at Work in Africa

The Climate Promise initiative is active in 140 countries across six continents. It has 15 key focus areas, including clean energy, land management, and the circular economy.

One notable example of its work in Africa is the Africa Minigrids Program, a project that brings small-scale solar power to sub-Saharan Africa. The AMP provides cost-effective access to infrastructure for local entrepreneurs to help them get started. The goal is to establish more African energy companies and empower them to grow independently.

Head over to Malawi, and the Climate Promise is advancing the clean energy transition with biogas. Here, only 20% of the population has access to electricity and most people use charcoal or wood fires for cooking. By installing just two biogas plants, the Climate Promise has helped Malawi reduce its CO2 emissions by 126 tonnes per year.

In Uganda, the Climate Promise assists local entrepreneurs who specialise in sustainable technology. Sample Uganda, for example, developed aquaponics kits that city-dwellers can use to grow their own food indoors. In rural Uganda, the Moyo District Farmers’ Association developed a mobile app that helps people implement sustainable farming practices to regenerate natural landscapes.

Are We Doing Enough?

The short answer is no, not yet. Despite the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement, temperatures are still rising at an alarming rate. The World Meteorological Organization says there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will rise above the 1.5°C threshold before 2028. The good news is that the effects may be temporary.

For global temperatures to fall, they first have to peak. Temperatures in 2024 were the hottest on record, with 2023 not far behind. This data has set off alarm bells worldwide, kicking many decision-makers into action. The IPCC reports that climate action is making progress, and predictions for global temperature hikes are much lower now than they were in 2010.

In South Africa, greenhouse gas emissions peaked in 2008 and have been steadily declining ever since. Despite being the most vulnerable to climate change, developing countries have some of the most robust NDCs that take a multifaceted approach to environmental problems. With initiatives like the Climate Promise in place, the Global South has the power to lead the climate transition.

The 2020s will be a defining decade and there is much work to be done. Yet in the words of the late uTata Madiba, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

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